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Around this time of year, many retailers are waiting for Black Friday to roll around. Dreams of more dollars, customers and merchandise flying off store shelves give merchants hope that bills can get paid and bank accounts can get filled. They are also nervous that if their shelves remain full, Christmas will not be jolly.

To be sure, it makes some sense that this one month time span can generate as much as a third of a retailer’s annual revenue, but I don’t buy the argument that retailers should go for the big-bang and look for significant returns over November and December. In fact, I would tell companies to keep their eyes on Halloween—even if their product offerings have nothing to do with candy, costumes or pumpkins.

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At TPN, we counsel our clients—both retailers and CPG companies—that if you want to get a sense of consumer sentiment and mood, look no further than the less-than-obvious times on the calendar. We created a Seasonal Highlighter Index, which demonstrates shopper behavior within particular customer segments. Increasingly, Halloween has become an indicator of how willing consumers will be to let go of their money when the holiday season rolls around. We have shown several retailers how they can re-merchandise stores, increase levels of particular SKUs and get a sense of what the consumer wants just by looking at what consumers are buying during Trick-or-Treat season.

While we don’t have the data available for this year’s Halloween season, we can demonstrate the relationship between last year’s Halloween research (which we performed in conjunction with NRN, a noted research house) and holiday 2009 sales figures.

As an example, we asked respondents who purchased their Halloween supplies from a mass merchandiser if they bought at a Walmart, Target, or other retailer. Among the results, 44 percent bought only from Walmart, 11 percent bought only from Target and 7 percent bought from other mass merchandisers or multiple mass merchandisers. We also learned that compared to the previous year, fewer respondents said their celebration was going to be something new and spontaneous (22 percent vs. 31 percent one year ago). Two simple parameters, but they define a bigger picture focused on more conservative shopping, selection and ultimately spending.

Obviously, over six in 10 respondents are going to mass merchandisers for their Halloween purchases, but with nearly 40 percent of respondents shopping elsewhere, brand managers should not bet the house that a mass merchandiser is the most ideal place to shop. More importantly, we found that upwards of 60 percent of those that shop at mass merchandisers for this holiday are willing to consider another channel. They are seeking more of a Halloween shopping experience. If this is the case for one holiday, one could make the assumption that this will follow suit during November and December. Our data for Christmas 2009 shows similar willingness for shifting shopping venue.

The shift away from more new and spontaneous celebrations can go a long way in showing retailers and brands what kinds of goods will sell during any holiday season. Oftentimes, spontaneity can be a reflection of first adoption. If a buying public chooses to stay with tradition, chances are their strategy for holiday shopping will err on the side of cautious or non-superfluous purchases. They will purchase more based on need and necessity as opposed to want or luxury.

Certainly, these are brief examples and are in no way an indication of every retailer’s strategy. Still, when you look at shopper habits at different times of the year, you can do so much more for your planning process—and your bottom line.

Ben DiSanti is senior vice president, planning and perspectives for TPN, a national retail marketing agency. (Photo by Alicia Rae.)