EMarketer has revised its U.S. retail e-commerce forecast, estimating that U.S. retail e-commerce sales (excluding travel, digital downloads and event tickets) will grow by 12.7 percent in 2010 to $152.1 billion, after two years of subpar growth.
This follows the U.S. Census Bureau’s release showing that online sales in Q4 2009 grew by 14.6 percent from a year earlier, the biggest gain in eight quarters.
In 2014, online sales will reach $233.9 billion, with a growth rate of 8.2 percent due to maturation of the online sales channel.
“Online sales growth outperforms total retail growth because shoppers are moving more of their purchases from stores to the Web to take advantage of lower prices, convenience and selection,” said Jeffrey Grau, eMarketer senior analyst and author of the report, “US Retail E-Commerce Forecast: Room to Grow.”
Online travel sales will total $92.5 billion in 2010, a 4.6 percent annual increase. This, too, will be a positive development after sales plummeted by 6.7 percent in 2009. Together, online retail and online travel will equal $244.6 billion in 2010 and grow at a 9 percent compound annual rate from 2009 to 2014.
“This year, 162 million people in the U.S. will research products online, and much of this research will lead to in-store purchases,” said Grau.
Over 82 percent of online researchers, or 133 million people, will be online buyers. The percent of online buyers will rise as young Internet users, predisposed to e-commerce, replace older users.
