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The 2011 holiday outlook for specialty stores

October 3, 2011 by Doug Fleener — President and Managing Partner, Dynamic Experiences Group, LLC

With Black Friday less than two months away, it's time to take a look at this year's holiday predictions. Here are some recent headlines about the upcoming holiday.

Joyless Holiday Retail Forecast
Wall Street Journal - Sep 21, 2011

Moderately healthy holiday sales forecast
Pittsburgh Post Gazette - Sep 22, 2011

Holiday season may be a bah-humbug for retailers
The Associated Press - Sep 21, 2011

Retailers Expect More Sales, Fewer Shoppers During Holidays
KBOI - Sep 22, 2011

Forecasts point to modest holiday growth
BusinessWeek - Sep 22, 2011

Holiday Apparel Sales Will Increase Despite Lower Foot Traffic
Sporting Goods Intelligence - Sep 23, 2011

That cleared things up, right? What's funny is that these headlines are all based upon two different holiday predictions that have fairly similar outlooks.

And there's the key word: Outlook. I believe your holiday success will be determined more by your outlook than any national predictions. With a zero national market share, most if not all of you have the ability to influence your results more than the outside influences driving the national predictions.

Here are three reasons I believe some specialty retailers will have a terrific holiday:

1. Deal fatigue and the experiential purchases.Although deal-of-the-day sites like Groupon and online shopping sites including Amazon have saved consumers a lot of money, they've also added a new level of stress to shopping. Of course shoppers want a deal, but they also want to enjoy shopping.

Most consumers will be looking for deals this holiday, but these same consumers also set aside part of their budget to shop with stores that deliver a stress- and deal-free memorable holiday experience. I 'll write more on this topic as we get closer to the holiday season, but as every year I'll be challenging you to create a unique and memorable in-store experience that differentiates you from the competition. This customer is going to appreciate it even more this year.

2. The staff's ability to deliver a great experience and create a sale. Ultimately, the stores with the right product and the best staff will be successful. WOWing customers while at the same time focusing on conversion and average sale will be essential to success. Frankly, most stores can't or won't do this. Now is the time to work with your staff so they're ready to maximize every customer opportunity this holiday season.

3. Focus on events.Almost every holiday report is predicting a decrease in store traffic. I'd say that's a pretty safe prediction, since that's already happening in most stores. Specialty retailers that can successfully use events to create incremental visits from their customer base won't be as affected by this trend. Even more important, these events are exactly the type of feel good holiday experiences at which consumers will make incremental purchases.

One of my favorite sayings is, "Optimists are right. So are pessimists. It's your choice." Forget the national predictions...let's make our own.

Here's my headline prediction:

Select specialty stores to have an extraordinary holiday
THE RETAIL CONTRARIAN - October 3, 2011

About Doug Fleener

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