AI
The AI winter is coming and retailers need a plan
To navigate the AI winter and emerge stronger, retailers should invest in automation that has already proven operational value. This is a time to prioritize solutions that are proven to scale over speculative prototypes.
December 2, 2025 by Erik Nieves — Founder and CEO at Plus One Robotics, Plus One Robotics
The retail industry is bracing for a short-term AI winter in 2026 after several years of intense excitement, rapid product releases and aggressive investment in automation. This will not be the dramatic collapse some people fear, but a long overdue cooling period driven by economic pressure, rising capital costs and expectations that raced ahead of operational reality.
The robotics market expanded at an extraordinary pace, growing from $24.93 billion in 2024 to $34.04 billion in 2025. That surge encouraged retailers to experiment with automations faster than budgets, staffing models, and retail operations could absorb. Many projects moved forward before use cases were fully validated, and as borrowing costs rose, these ambitious initiatives became harder to justify. At the same time, investors and boards pushed for quick returns that early-stage systems were not yet capable of delivering.
The impact is already showing up in real-world operations. During the 2025 shipping shock, U.S. warehouses were stretched to their limits as supply chain volatility intensified. Automation provided stability, but the disruption exposed gaps in resilience that many systems weren't prepared to handle. It revealed the difference between the level of automation retailers had hoped for and the level their operations could reliably support.
At the same time, geopolitical scrutiny is increasing. U.S. trade officials have probed robotics and medical gear imports for potential tariffs, reminding retailers that global policy risks can influence automation timelines and costs.
Together, these pressures point to a necessary reset that brings expectations back in line with the pace of innovation and the realities of retail operations.
A recalibration that strengthens retail
The AI winter should be viewed as a healthy correction. It shifts attention away from conceptual demos toward automation that works at scale. The systems that reduce labor strain, keep shelves stocked and make fulfillment more accurate will become the real value drivers.
This reset will also reveal which projects were built on solid foundations and which were not. Many automation efforts stall because goals are vague or teams are not aligned, and research suggests that 30-50% of robotics projects fail for the same reasons.
The correction gives retailers room to simplify their automation roadmaps and focus on solutions that create measurable progress.
Last-mile robots enter the real world
In contrast to the slowdown elsewhere, last-mile delivery robots are poised for expansion in 2026. After years of controlled pilots, these systems will begin operating in everyday settings such a sidewalks, parking lots and neighborhood streets.
This shift will reshape the delivery landscape. Vendors with stable, scalable fleets will advance quickly, while others are likely to consolidate or exit. Delivery work will change as well, with roles evolving toward supervision, remote support and maintenance. This will also bring new regulatory attention as cities move to clarify rules on issues like sidewalk access, liability and insurance.
RFMs become retail's automation advantage
A major development for 2026 will be the growing importance of Robotics Foundation Models. These models allow robots to learn from real-world operations and improve over time. To benefit from RFMs, retailers need clean data pipelines, regular model updates and strong deployment processes.
Many robots perform well in a controlled environment, but only retailers with mature RFM workflows will see consistent performance improvements across entire fleets. RFMs will become a differentiator over time for retailers that build the necessary infrastructure early.
How retailers should prepare
To navigate the AI winter and emerge stronger, retailers should invest in automation that has already proven operational value. This is a time to prioritize solutions that are proven to scale over speculative prototypes.
It's also a time to prioritize cross-functional alignment. Automation only works when operations, IT, supply chain, HR and digital teams are moving in the same direction with a shared plan. Failures typically stem from unclear ownership and conflicting goals.
Once this is in place, the next requirement is the infrastructure that keeps these systems running. Retailers need dependable data and real-time monitoring so RFMs can learn from daily operations. Strong coordination gives automation a clear direction, and strong data gives it the support it needs to scale.
At the same time, retailers should prepare their workforce for the new roles that will grow as last-mile robots move into daily operations. These robots will not eliminate jobs, but they will change them. Workers will take on tasks like supervising autonomous deliveries, managing robot fleets and handling routine maintenance. Preparing teams now ensures the transition is smooth and that people and machines can work together effectively.
Finally, vendor consolidation is inevitable, so it's important to select automation partners with proven durability, strong financial footing and the ability to scale across diverse environments.
The cooling period is coming, but it will sharpen retail's transformation. It's a strategic reset that will strengthen the foundation for the future. Retailers who use 2026 to prepare will emerge more efficient, more resilient and better positioned for the next decade.
About Erik Nieves
Erik Nieves is the co-founder and CEO of Plus One Robotics, an AI software company developing robots for warehouse automation. Prior to Plus One, Erik was Director for Yaskawa Motoman Robotics where he was responsible for the technology roadmap and emerging applications. During his 25+ year tenure at Yaskawa, Erik held a variety of leadership positions in the U.S. and abroad. Erik serves on the board of directors of the Association for Advancing Automation (A3) and is a frequent speaker and contributor to public policy on robotics.
