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The six incorrect reports you will hear about holiday retail – again

September 28, 2011 by Bob Phibbs — CEO, The Retail Doctor

Fruitcakes aren't the only things that reappear, stale, each holiday season.

In the current issue of Time magazine, author Brad Tuttle states, "Gazing into Santa's crystal ball, the retail experts point to the strong likelihood of weak sales during the rapidly approaching holiday shopping season."

This in spite of the National Retail Federation's projected 4 percent increase. I wish I could say I was shocked but I'm not.

Why? Take a look at last year's articles....

In Holiday Forecast Mixed, a Chain Store Age article from 9/28/10 said, "(the) holiday period will appear weak compared to retail sales in the first three quarters of 2010."

On October 5, 2010, an Accenture consumer survey found that "83 percent of respondents expected to spend the same or less on holiday gifts compared to 2009."

A Gallup survey published October 25, 2010 reported that, "consumers planned to spend an average $715 this holiday season, compared to the response of $740 recorded in October 2009."

Nov. 4, 2010 Archstone Consulting predicted that holiday sales would increase by only 1.5 percent in 2010; they attributed the "anemic performance to consumers' stagnant wages and limited purchasing power."

A Wall Street Journal article from Nov. 28, 2010 reported, "The reality is we have a deal driven consumer in 2010," ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said in a prepared statement. "The American shopper has adapted to the economic climate over the last couple of years and is possibly spending more wisely as the holiday season begins."

The same article quoted the National Retail Federation's (NRF) prediction of a gain of 2.3 percent for holiday sales 2010.

When the dust all cleared, the NRF reported that holiday sales rose 5.7 percent, outperforming their own forecast. It was the biggest percentage increase since 2004.

Imagine all those merchants who read the doom and gloom stories and didn't hire smarter, didn't buy more merchandise, didn't stay open longer...

Opportunity lost. Forever.

Now we have the same predictions being made how retail sales will not perform. If it were something new, I'd be concerned but when I examined the past eleven years, the stories were the same but only were right once. That's right. Once.

Here are the six stories you'll discover before the end of the year:

1. During the last week in September, headlines will announce that it will be a tough holiday shopping season for retailers this year.
2. During the third week of November, headlines will announce that retailers are nervous about the holiday shopping season.
3. After the Black Friday weekend, headlines will announce that there were not enough shoppers in the stores, that Black Friday sales were disappointing, signaling trouble for the holiday season.
4. During the first week of December, headlines will announce that retailers are nervous while shoppers are waiting on the sidelines for more bargains to appear.
5. During the week prior to Christmas, headlines will announce that shoppers are finding tremendous bargains, naturally at the expense of retailers and their bottom lines.
6. During the week after Christmas, headlines will announce that holiday sales have – once again – disappointed retailers.

Of course, it's already started...Whether it is last week's Fox Business News "Holiday Retail Sales Seem Tepid" or MSNBC's "Holiday Season May Be Bah-Humbug for Retailers," the message seems clear – look out!

Yet in January, we're bound to find out once again – retail was just fine, thank you.

So my message to audiences and readers alike is to decide how you'll make this holiday season bright. That means choosing to expect the holidays to produce the sales you need instead of allowing yourself to be sucked into the black hole of fear.

For my tips on how to grow this holiday's retail sales, snag your copy of my free whitepaper.

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