Consumer Behavior

Holiday sales projected to grow 4% to 7%

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September 25, 2026

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This year's U.S. holiday sales are projected to grow 4% to 7% despite the fact that consumer confidence is declining.

That's the top finding from AlixPartners' "2026 U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook" that also revealed 57% of consumers view the economy as being worse than 12 months ago.

Over a third of consumer polled, 37%, intend to spend less this holiday season yet actual spending has averaged roughly 5% above prior-year levels each month throughout 2026, according to Census data.

"Across the industry, retailers are wondering when consumers will stop showing up given the declining sentiment trajectory we've been seeing for the last few years," Bryan Eshelman, Americas lead of retail at AlixPartners, said in a press release on the findings. "While most of our clients have seen noticeable declines in traffic as new disruptions hit the consumer, time and time again they show back up. Our data is showing us that they are finding more and more creative ways to continue spending."

Consumer Behavior