Consumer Behavior

Holiday sales will hit NRF expectations

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December 18, 2023

The U.S. Census Bureau's November results indicate that holiday retail sales predictions from the National Retail Federation will likely hit the mark.

"Today's report highlights consumers' strength and continuing capacity to spend," Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist, said in a press release. "Jobs and wage gains together with falling energy prices have supported holiday shopping as we predicted. Lower inflation for goods has helped savvy consumers make smart decisions about holiday purchases. The year-over-year comparison shows spending is on track to meet our projection for a sound holiday shopping season."

The Census Bureau reported overall retail sales in November were up 0.3% from October and up 4.1% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.2% month over month and an increase of 2.2% year over year in October.

The results come as NRF is predicting holiday retail sales from November 1 through December 31 will increase between 3% and 4% over 2022 to a record total of between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.