Consumer Behavior

Holiday shopping season predicted to be underwhelming

Photo: Adobe Stock

September 24, 2025

Holiday retail sales will be "underwhelming," with a 3% to 5% growth rate this year.

That's a top finding from the AlixPartners' "2025 U.S. Retail Holiday Outlook," according to a press release.

The research also showed revealed that one in three high-income shoppers plan to spend more this year.

In this year's study, high-income consumers (those making more than $100,000 per year) are the primary drivers of increased spending this holiday season. Over 30% said they plan to spend more this year, while less than 20% of other income groups intend to increase their budgets.

The data also showed about 80% of consumers polled said they plan to spend the same or less this year than last, with 35% anticipating a reduction in spending (which is a 35% increase from last year).

"This year, overall, retailers face a consumer who is more cautious and frugal," Bryan Eshelman, partner and managing director in the retail practice at AlixPartners, said in the release. "They will be on the prowl for deals, and retailers will need to be creative, online and in-store, with how they lure in shoppers. Markdowns need to be carefully executed. And regardless of income, shoppers are prioritizing value and want the best bang for their buck."