Consumer Behavior

NRF: January sales reveal consumer resiliency

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February 20, 2023

The bounce back in retail sales last month reveals the resiliency of consumers, according to the National Retail Federation, which issued a statement noting job and wage growth, as well as easing of inflation spurred spending.

"Despite inflationary headwinds, January retail sales show the resiliency of consumers in how they manage their budgets and make decisions on how, when and where to spend their hard-earned dollars," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release. "Retailers understand the needs of consumers and have in place the people, processes and technologies to meet consumers with the right inventory, competitive pricing and great experiences however consumers choose to shop."

"Consumer spending clearly picked up after the holidays," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in the release. "Sales were helped along by job and wage growth, slightly lower inflation and unusually warm and dry weather that preceded February's record cold. A large cost-of-living adjustment gave Social Security beneficiaries more money to spend, and many consumers were still drawing on savings built up during the pandemic. January made up for the softer pattern of spending in December that came after early shopping pulled holiday spending forward this past fall."

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that overall retail sales in January were up 3% from December and up 6.4% year over year. In December, sales were down 1.1% month over month but up 5.9% year over year.

NRF's calculation of retail sales, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail, showed January was up 1.5% from December and up 4.8% unadjusted year over year. In December, sales were down 0.5% month over month but up 4.8% year over year. NRF's numbers were up 5% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average as of January.

Additional findings from NRF include:

• Sporting goods stores were up 0.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.9% unadjusted year over year.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 2.5% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.6% unadjusted year over year.
• Online and other non-store sales were up 1.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.7% unadjusted year over year.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.3% unadjusted year over year.
• Health and personal care stores were up 1.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.9% unadjusted year over year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 4.4% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.5% unadjusted year over year.
• General merchandise stores were up 3.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.4% unadjusted year over year.
• Building materials and garden supply stores were up 0.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.4% unadjusted year over year.
• Electronics and appliance stores were up 3.5% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 6.5% unadjusted year over year.