Consumer Behavior
Online holiday shopping season to hit $253B
October 16, 2025
This year's online holiday shopping season is projected to hit $253.4 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase year over year, according to a Adobe shopping forecast.
Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories, according to a press release. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud.
A record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion in a single day (up from seven days last year). Cyber Week (the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion (up 6.3% year over year), according to the report.
Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season — and year —at $14.2 billion (up 6.3% year over year).
Black Friday is expected to see higher growth this season, rising 8.3% year over year at $11.7 billion. On Thanksgiving, consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion online (up 4.9% year over year).
Mobile devices will be the dominant shopping platform this season, set to drive a record 56.1% share of online spend (vs. desktop shopping). This represents $142.7 billion, up 8.5% year over year.
Adobe expects significant discounts this holiday season — up to 28% off listed price — that are on par with the 2024 season.
