Consumer Behavior

Retail sales expected to grow 4.4% this year

Adobe Stock

March 24, 2026

Summarize with

Retail sales this year will grow by 4.4%, hitting $5.6 trillion.

That's a forecast from the National Retail Federation in partnership with Oxford Economics.

The prediction was announced during NRF's sixth annual "State of Retail & the Consumer" virtual event, according to a press release.

"Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the release. "We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support."

The 2026 sales forecast compares with 3.6% average annual sales growth over the last 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022 when growth was atypical.

"Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape," NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said in the release. "While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead."

NRF's forecast is based on its own definition of core retail sales, which excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.