Consumer Behavior

Retail sales to grow 6% to 8% this year, claims NRF

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March 23, 2022

Retail sales will increase between 6% and 8% this year, compared to 14% last year, according to the National Retail Federation's annual forecast.

The prime driver will be consumers ready to spend and having the resources to do so, according to a press release from the industry group. The prediction was announced at the group's recent annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event.

"NRF expects retail sales to increase in 2022, as consumers are ready to spend and have the resources to do so," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the release. "We should see durable growth this year given consumer confidence to continue this expansion, notwithstanding risks related to inflation, COVID-19 and geopolitical threats."

The organization forecasts 2022 retail sales will total between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

Non-store and online sales year-over-year, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 11% and 13% to a range of $1.17 trillion to $1.19 trillion as consumers continue to utilize e-commerce.

The 2022 figure compares with a 14% annual growth rate in 2021, the highest rate in more than 20 years. This year's sales forecast is notably above the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7%.

"Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in the release. "In addition to inflation, the forces impacting the economy include COVID-19 impacts, international tensions and policy variability."