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Retail sales to hit $5.4T despite economic uncertainty

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April 9, 2025

Retail sales are predicted to grow between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, hitting between between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion.

The projection was made during the National Retail Federation's annual "State of Retail & the Consumer" virtual event.

"Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains — however, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement. "Still, serving customers will remain retailers' top priority no matter what the economic environment."

The 2025 sales forecast compares with 3.6% annual sales growth of $5.29 trillion dollars in 2024. This year's forecast is in line with the NRF's 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6%.

"Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in the press release on the virtual event. "While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling."

Kleinhenz added that even though consumer confidence is declining, due largely to lingering inflation and consumers' anxiety over tariffs, that doesn't mean there will be an immediate drop in consumer spending.

"It's the hard data on employment, income and tariff-induced inflation — not consumer sentiment — that supports our view of a slower trajectory for consumer spending," he said.