Consumer Behavior

Robust e-commerce sales expected this holiday season

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September 18, 2023

E-commerce sales will grow between 10.3% and 12.8% this holiday season compared to 2022 and holiday retail sales will likely increase between 3.5% and 4.6%.

Those are top predictions from Deloitte's annual holiday retail forecast. The research predicts holiday sales will total $1.54 to $1.56 trillion between November and January, according to a press release.

E-commerce holiday sales are projected to reach between $278 billion and $284 billion this season.

"We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season," Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster, said in the release. "Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year. Our forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings, both of which will weigh on retail sales and are reflected in our lower projected growth for the season."

Retail sales between November 2022 and January 2023 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 7.6% and totaled $1.49 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.