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US retail metrics staying the course this year
February 19, 2026
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ClaudeA new forecast predicts projections for U.S. retail metrics will stay the course through 2026 with a possible minimal rise in the first half of the year.
The projections come from CoStar Group which expects the metric to fall slightly in the latter end of 2026 and start of 2027, according to a Connect CRE report.
While store closures are on the ebb, there is an expected increase in the first half of 2026.
"Underpinning the stable outlook was the resumption of positive demand in the back half of 2025," Brandon Svec, national director of retail analytics at CoStar Group, said in the Connect CRE report authored by Paul Bubny. "After two consecutive quarters of falling demand, retail fundamentals stabilized in the third quarter as the pace of closures slowed and backfill demand surged. With higher demand, the wave of store closures seemingly cresting and new supply remaining elusive, performance is forecasted to remain in balance for the foreseeable future."
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