Consumer Behavior

Winter holiday spend will beat 2023 retail sales

Photo: Adobe Stock

October 23, 2024

Holiday spending will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023, and is predicted to hit between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spend in November and December.

Last year's total holiday spend was $955.6 billion in the same time frame.

The spend prediction comes from a National Retail Federation forecast.

"The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year," Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, said in a press release. "The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth."

A primary factor for the sales growth will be e-commerce activity.

Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8% and 9% to a total of between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. This figure is up from $273.3 billion last year. By comparison, last year non-store sales rose 10.7% over 2022, according to the NRF.

"We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year," Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist, said in the release. "Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously."

NRF expects retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, some of which may have been pulled into October to support retailers' holiday buying events this month. This compares with 509,000 seasonal hires last year.

A Gordon Brothers forecast predicts a U.S. retail sales bump of 1.2% to 3.5% this holiday season due to the calendar this year.

"Not only is the U.S. election concerning consumers and increasing advertising costs, but Thanksgiving is late in the 2024 calendar year so there is nearly one less week between Black Friday and Christmas," Alexa Driansky, managing director at Gordon Brothers, said in a press release on the prediction. "As a result, retailers will feel even more pressure this year due to a major holiday sales time crunch."