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Holiday e-commerce spending: $38.5 billion in 2010

More online deals means more shoppers will stay home on Black Friday, according to report.

November 16, 2010

Black Friday is traditionally the busiest in-store shopping day of the year, but during this holiday season, more consumers than ever are expected to stay home and shop online.

Those stay-at-home shoppers will help propel online holiday sales to strong growth again this year, eMarketer forecasts. According to a new report, e-commerce spending during the 2010 holiday season is expected to reach $38.5 billion, up 14.3 percent over 2009. This marks the second straight year of double-digit ecommerce growth after online sales plunged 7.9 percent during the 2008 holiday season.

"Holiday shopping is ideally suited to the internet," said Jeffrey Grau, principal analyst at eMarketer and author of the new report, "Online Holiday Sales Forecast: Optimism Is in the Air." "Consumers appreciate the convenience and product selection online, as well as the abundance of resources available for finding good deals, especially for cost-conscious shoppers trying to weather the tough economy."

This year, Grau said, shoppers are likely to shift a greater share of their holiday gift spending from stores to the internet. One result of this shift online is that Thanksgiving Day, a time reserved for family gatherings, not shopping, and Black Friday, a day traditionally associated with in-store shopping, have become important e-commerce events.

"Black Friday is losing its significance as an in-store shopping event," Grau said. "Savvy consumers, knowing that retailers are posting some of their best Black Friday deals online, will shop the web on Black Friday to avoid crowded malls, find bargains and locate unusual or popular items that are unavailable in stores, rather than rise early to face crowded stores."

Retailers have also been ramping up in-store and mobile promotions well in advance of the holidays. This, coupled with strong online holiday sales, will push annual e-commerce sales to $162.4 billion for full-year 2010, up 12.7 percent over 2009, according to eMarketer. Online holiday sales will represent 23.7 percent of online retail sales in 2010, underlining the importance that November and December have on retailers’ annual e-commerce sales.

"The same bargain-hunting attitude adopted during the past two holiday seasons is likely to define shopping behavior again this year," Grau said. "Consumers will go online to find coupons, compare prices on shopping engines and research items, even if they plan to buy them in-store."

(Photo by François Rejeté.)