Consumer Behavior

Analyst predicts consumer spending slowdown

Adobe Stock

August 25, 2026

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Consumer spending growth will be sluggish in the months ahead as the springtime growth was likely due to the federal tax refund spending, according to Goldman Sachs economists.

While the U.S. consumer has shown strong resilience given high food and gas cots that resilience will wane, according to a Yahoo report on the Goldman Sachs predictions.

"We expect sluggish consumer spending growth ahead," Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius stated in a report. "Although Friday's drop in July retail sales partly reflected the negative impact of an earlier-than-usual Amazon Prime day, the revised sequential path now looks much more consistent with our view that the strength of real consumer spending in the spring was the temporary byproduct of the tax refund surge. We expect real consumer spending growth to slow to 1-1.5% in the second half as real cash flow stagnates."

The analyst note came in the same week of big retailer earnings and industry outlook reports including those Home Depot, Target and Walmart.