Consumer Behavior

NRF economist: Big questions loom regarding economic recovery

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August 6, 2020

While there are some broad indicators that the U.S. economy is beginning to recover, the nation's biggest and top retail organization is issuing a cautionary note and is not all that optimistic about a retail comeback in the near future.

"Optimism about the economy and retail spending is being tested daily with the spread of the coronavirus," National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a press release. "Big questions are looming, and we are all grappling to discern what incoming data is telling us about the health of the economy and consumers. Depending on the data selected, the answers are not entirely clear."

"A key question is whether the pace of growth and momentum will carry forward over the next few months," Kleinhenz said. "Based on quarterly and monthly data, the U.S. economic recovery continues despite elevated COVID-19 cases. But in examining weekly data, the pace of improvement appears to be slowing. Could it be that we are at or heading back to the same spot we were at two months ago?"

Kleinhenz's insight was published in the August issue of NRF's Monthly Economic Review.