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NRF: Healthy holiday sales season ahead

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November 7, 2022

This year's holiday sales season will be healthy despite economic challenges and inflation concerns.

That's the message the National Retail Federation is forecasting in its prediction that retail sales this month and next will grow between 6% and 8% compared to last year, hitting between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.

Last year sales grew 13.5% over 2020 and totaled $889.3 billion, according to a press release from NRF.

Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% over the past 10 years, with pandemic spending in recent years accounting for considerable gains.

"While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the release. "In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season."

NRF expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 10% and 12% to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion. This figure is up from $238.9 billion last year, which saw extraordinary growth in digital channels as consumers turned to online shopping to meet their holiday needs during the pandemic.

Consumers are also expected to shift back to in-store shopping and a more traditional holiday shopping experience.

"This holiday season cycle is anything but typical," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in the release. "NRF's holiday forecast takes a number of factors into consideration, but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity. Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver's seat."