Consumer Behavior

Online retail holiday sales to cross $275B milestone

Photo: Adobe Stock

October 1, 2026

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The U.S. 2026 online holiday shopping season will hit a record-setting $275.1 billion, illustrating a 6.7% growth compared to 2025. Cyber Monday will be the biggest online shopping day of the holiday season with consumers spending over $15 billion, but Black Friday will see stronger growth due to earlier discounts.

Those are all top findings from Adobe's online shopping forecast for the 2026 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026, and based on Adobe Analytics data.

In terms of consumer behavior, shoppers will embrace AI tools and socia influencers to find deals and conduct product discovery, according to a press release on the findings.

Adobe's forecast is based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe CX Enterprise,.

Cyber Week (the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday) is set to drive $47.5 billion online (up 7.4% year over year), representing 17.3% of the full holiday season spend. Of the full holiday season spend, electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9% YoY) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7% YoY) remain tentpole categories in e-commerce, according to the data.

Adobe expects $95.8 billion will be spent online in October 2026, up 8% YoY. Nearly $10 billion will be spent during Amazon's Prime Day event from Oct. 6 to 7 ($9.9 billion, up 9.2% YoY.