Consumer Behavior

Holiday sales forecast predicts biggest growth in 4 years

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September 29, 2026

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Holiday season retail sales are expected to mark the strongest holiday growth since 2022, according to Mastercard Economics Institute's annual holiday forecast for the U.S.

The forecast predicts sales, excluding automobiles and gas, to increase 5.5% year-over-year between November 1 and December 24, based on SpendingPulse insights.

Online sales are expected to grow 11% year over year. But the in-store figure is the more surprising one: MEI forecasts 3.6% growth, which would be the strongest showing for physical retail in four years, according to a press release.

Thanksgiving falls late again this year, compressing the window to Christmas and potentially encouraging retailers to begin promotions earlier, according to the report. The bigger change from last year is that Cyber Monday lands in November, concentrating online shopping into one long weekend and making November an especially important month for retailers.