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Study: Americans cautious about holiday spending this year

November 6, 2013

While European retailers have a rosy outlook for the holidays this year, it looks like American shoppers are taking a different view: According to a recent survey by financial services firm Edward Jones, some Americans are planning to hold on to their wallets this holiday season. In fact, 37 percent say they plan to spend less on holiday shopping in 2013 than they spent in 2012, contrary to what Edward Jones' retail analyst is anticipating: holiday sales to increase by about 2.8 percent.
 
"While we expect some sales growth in the retail market this holiday season, those polled expressed a conservative view on holiday spending," said Brian Yarbrough, consumer discretionary analyst for Edward Jones. "This differs from our retail forecasts for the remainder of the year. We anticipate solid numbers from most retailers with luxury players leading the charge."
 
The survey, conducted during the government shutdown, provides a unique perspective into how the political landscape and other short-term events may impact consumer spending behaviors. More than one-third (37 percent) plan to spend less on holiday shopping in 2013 than they spent in 2012, and another 39 percent say their shopping budget will be the same. Just 18 percent plan to spend more this year.
 
"Americans have been inundated by negative headlines regarding changes in economic policy, the impact of rising interest rates and disparate political views coming out of Washington," said Yarbrough. "It's clear that these issues have heightened uncertainty and caused individuals to second-guess their saving and spending behaviors. However, it's important to stay the course and take a long-term approach to spending, saving and investing, especially with all of the short-term uncertainty."
 
Additional highlights from the survey:
 
Shopping early to take advantage of promotional deals
 
Of Americans planning to buy holiday gifts this year (79 percent), 24 percent have already started to tackle their lists. Less than half (43 percent) plan to conduct their shopping before Thanksgiving, about one-quarter (26 percent) plan to take advantage of Black Friday or Cyber Monday sales, and one-third (32 percent) say they will wait until December to get started. In a bearish admission, 16 percent of those who have traditionally purchased gifts for the holidays say they will not be doing so this year.
 
Younger shoppers most likely to spend
Respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 are the most likely to spend more in 2013 than in 2012 (35 percent), while only 12 percent of respondents ages 35 and 44 plan to spend more. Nearly half of respondents 55 and older plan to spend the same as 2012.
 
Youngest Americans likely to spend on marquee shopping days
The survey's youngest respondents, those between the ages of 18 and 34, are far more likely to shop on Black Friday or Cyber Monday, with one-quarter indicating they plan to do so, compared with just 13 percent of Americans ages 55 and older. While 89 percent of respondents ages 18 to 34 plan to conduct holiday shopping this year, only 64 percent of respondents 55 and older plan to do the same.
 
Larger households more likely to conduct holiday shopping
When taking household size into consideration, 91 percent of Americans with three or more individuals in their household plan to shop for the holidays this year, compared with 59 percent of single-person households. The trend continues between the two groups regarding their plans to conduct holiday shopping on Black Friday or Cyber Monday. In households with three or more members, 26 percent say they plan to shop during those particular days, as opposed to just 11 percent of single-person households.
 
Additionally, almost one-third (29 percent) of single-person households and just 6 percent of households with three or more people do not plan to buy holiday gifts this year but have in the past.

Read more about consumer behavior.