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Visa's chief economist offers holiday shopping forecast

November 18, 2013

Wayne Best, chief economist for Visa, has announced the findings of this year's Visa Spending Intentions survey. Conducted for Visa by Prosper Insights and Analytics via an online sample of more than 4,600 U.S. consumers aged 18 and over, the report finds that 87 percent of shoppers plan to do at least some of their holiday shopping online this year, with 40 percent saying they will buy half or more of their gifts online.

"In the first 10 months of 2013, e-commerce sales are up 17 percent from the same period last year, and Visa domestic e-commerce transactions exceeded $1 billion on 211 days, an increase of 19 percent from 2012," Best writes in a recent blog post.

Other findings from the Visa Spending Intentions survey:

Electronic payments are the norm

• Twenty-five percent of respondents plan to use their mobile phone or tablet for holiday shopping this year, up from 22 percent last year.
• Credit and debit cards will be the primary forms of payment through the holidays, with 56 percent of people planning to use their credit card and 30 percent to use a debit card.

The holidays are big business, for big and small businesses

• Almost 50 percent expect to spend between $301 and $800, while 14 percent plan to spend more than $800.
• More than 85 percent of consumers are as, or more, inclined to shop at a small business this year, compared to last year.

Beat the crowds with a tap of the finger

Online holiday shopping has become the preferred way to shop for a number of reasons, including:

• Fits my schedule better/Can shop anytime (67 percent)
• Better prices online (61 percent)
• Dislike battling crowds (54 percent)

Read more about consumer behavior.