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Back to School: Sales to dip nearly 10% despite other economy gains

Despite positive economic moves in the housing and job markets, the retail back-to-school sales season won't be as robust as last year. Overall, however, spending has been on a steady and healthy progression.

July 22, 2015 by Judy Mottl — Editor, RetailCustomerExperience.com & DigitalSignageToday.com

This is the third of a 10-part series Retail Customer Experience will be publishing through July and August to help retailers shape and hone the all-important back-to-school sales strategy. We’re looking for some great ideas and efforts from the retailers for the final series, so if you have a back-to-school retail experience to share, emailus!

This year’s back-to-school sales predictions aren’t as rosy as indicators for other industries as retailers may be dealing with a nearly 10 percent dip.

The forecast, however, shouldn’t give retailers sleepless nights as back-to-school spending is more needs-based than spending in other sectors, such as housing and the job market, according to the National Retail Federation.

Basically, back-to-school shoppers spent way big last year, in 2014, so this year just isn’t as robust as the supplies and clothing demand isn’t as strong. Overall, average spending on back-to-school retail items has grown 42 percent over the past decade.

“As seen over the last 13 years, spending on ‘back to school’ has consistently fluctuated based on children’s needs each year, and it’s unlikely most families would need to restock and replenish apparel, electronics and supplies every year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a release on the survey, which polled 6,500 shoppers. “Parents this summer will inventory their children’s school supplies and decide what is needed and what can be reused, which just makes good budgeting sense for families with growing children."

Total spend should hit about $68 billion, down from $74.9 billion in 2014. The biggest dips will be among the college student crowd, which will decrease 15 percent compared to a year ago, while there is just a 7 percent dip in the K-12 segment this year.

“Heading into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that economic growth and consumer spending will improve after a shaky first half of the year,” said Shay.

Of those polled 92.7 percent will purchase new apparel, an average of $217.82, with school supply spending averaging of $97.74; families will also spend $117.56 on new shoes.

Back-to-school shopping has likely already kicked-off for most families as the report indicates consumers wait at least two months before school but this year more are expected to wait longer, shopping one to two weeks before schools open. The timing, according to the NRF study, is tied to shoppers’ budgets, avoiding crowds and not wanting to miss out on popular merchandise.

As Retail Customer Experience has reported in its 10-part series this summer there are some new trends and factors playing a role in back-to-school consumer activity. One increasing trend is the use of mobile devices, such as smartphones, by shoppers. By following some real-world advice and tips from mobile commerce experts today's retailers can easily capitalize on that trend and make sure they don't miss out on potential revenue from the new shopper segment.

About Judy Mottl

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Judy Mottl is editor of Retail Customer Experience and Digital Signage Today. She has decades of experience as a reporter, writer and editor covering technology and business for top media including AOL, InformationWeek, InternetNews and Food Truck Operator.

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