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Consumers likely not cashing in on tariff refunds

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April 28, 2026

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Retailers big and small are tapping a tariff refund portal in a quest to recoup $166 billion in tariff costs but the recouped funds aren't likely to trickle down to consumers.

The big exception are Costco shoppers as the wholesaler has promised to pass savings to customers, according to a New York Times report.

Big retail winners in the refund effort will likely include Gap, Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Lowe's and Kohls. Retailer can keep the recouped funds or share with customers. None, besides Costco, according to the Times report, have detailed what they'll do with recouped funds.

Importers and customers reportedly paid 96% of the tariffs, according to a report from the German Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The Trump administration tariffs were projected to amount to an average tax increase, per U.S. household, of $1,300 in 2026, according to data from the Tax Foundation organization.

"The launch of the tariff refund portal is an important step, but it is not a broad reset. The direct benefit goes to importers of record, not consumers, and even eligible claims will still take time to process," Nishith Rastogi, CEO of Locus, shared in an email interview. "For retailers and supply chain teams, the bigger value is reduced uncertainty: the ruling is now being operationalized, which should help improve confidence in pricing, sourcing, and inventory planning. That said, refunds will not undo the volatility created by shifting duty rules, freight disruption, and uneven demand, so any near-term relief for shoppers is likely to be limited."

The refund portal opens over a year after the Trump administration began imposing new and higher tariffs starting January 2025. The tariff policies ignited lawsuits which eventually led to the Supreme Court deeming the tariff policies illegal.