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Holiday sales growth will hit at least 3.8%, claims NRF

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October 16, 2019

Holiday retail sales in November and December will increase between 3.8% to 4.2%, compared to 2018, according to the National Retail Federation.

The growth prediction does not include auto sales, gas sales and restaurant activity. The average holiday sales increase over the past five years has been 3.7%, according to a press release.

"The U.S. economy is continuing to grow and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the release. "Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric. Consumers are in good financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season. However, confidence could be eroded by continued deterioration of these and other variables."

NRF expects online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 11% and 14% ( $162.6 billion and $166.9 billion), an increase from $146.5 billion last year.

Holiday sales during 2018 totaled $701.2 billion, an unusually small increase of 2.1 percent over the year before amid a government shutdown, stock market volatility, tariffs and other challenges, according to the release. NRF expects retailers to hire between 530,000 and 590,000 temporary workers, compared with 554,000 in 2018.