Merchandising

Import decline ahead as economic recovery is 'gradual,' says NRF

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May 19, 2020

Import activity will weather a double-digit dip this spring and summer, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic that shuttered China factories and retail stores in the U.S.

That's the projection from the National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker report, in collaboration with Hackett Associates, as stores around the world slowly begin reopening after months of being closed for health and safety reasons.

"Factories in China are largely back online and stores that closed here in the U.S. are starting to reopen, but volume is far lower than what we would see in a 'normal' year,'" NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a press release on the report findings. "Shoppers will come back and there is still a need for essential items, but the economic recovery will be gradual and retailers will adjust the amount of merchandise they import to meet demand."

"Much will depend on consumers' willingness to return to spending," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in the release. "Our view is that second-quarter economic growth will be significantly worse than the previous quarter, but we continue to expect recovery to come in the second half of the year, especially the fourth quarter and into 2021. This is based on the big and somewhat tenuous assumption that there is no second wave of the virus."