Consumer Behavior

Adobe: Online US sales will be a record-breaking $189B

Photo by istock.com

November 5, 2020

It is music to U.S. retailers' ears: This holiday shopping season will be a record-breaker in terms of online sales as Adobe projects it will hit $189 billion.

The figure, according to an Adobe blog on the forecast, shatters all previous online season spend and represents a 33% increased compared to last year — two years of growth in one season.

Adobe analyzed over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million SKUs from 80 of the 100 largest U.S. retailers.

The figure could be even higher if another government stimulus bill comes through by year's end and if physical retailers are forced to close again due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, according to the blog. If both happen there may be an additional increase of $11 billion.

Here are additional Adobe projections for the holiday season:

• Online sales will surpass $2 billion every day Nov. 1-21 and increase to $3 billion a day Nov. 22–Dec 3.
• Black Friday is projected to generate $10 billion in online sales, a 39% year-over-year increase; Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the year with $12.7 billion, a 35% jump YoY.
• Americans will spend $28.1 billion more on their smartphones vs. 2019, accounting for 42% of all online sales, a 55% increase YoY.
• Small retailers ($10M-$50M annual online revenue) will see a larger boost to revenue (107% boost) vs. large retailers (84% boost).
• In weeks leading up to Thanksgiving weekend (Nov. 1-22), Adobe predicts consumers will spend $56 billion, a 37% YoY increase. A record 33% of consumers plan to have their holiday shopping complete by Black Friday.