Consumer Behavior

US holiday sales to exceed $1T for first time ever

Adobe Stock

September 9, 2026

Summarize withChatGPTGrokPerplexityClaude

Holiday sales in the U.S. this season are expected to beat last year's growth performance and exceed $1 trillion for the first time, according to Bain & Company's annual U.S. retail holiday forecast.

Retail sales are estimated to grow 4.5% year over year during the November to December shopping season and online shopping will accelerate further with non-store sales predicted to grow 9.9% compared to a year ago, according to a press release on the sales data projections.

In-store sales drive 70% of the holiday season, according to the data

The strongest sales growth in the holiday period is expected to come from a further jump in online buying with the strongest performance predicted to come from the clothing and accessories segment, as well as from health and personal care products.

"While U,S, retailers have reason to rejoice this holiday season as the industry reaches the trillion-dollar milestone for the first time, there are underlying factors that will temper bottom lines," Aaron Cheris, partner at Bain & Company and global head of the firm's retail practice, said in the release. "The key for retailers is to make the most of the crucial holiday season by striking the right balance when it comes to price and promotions, and to making the most of new AI capabilities to enhance the customer experience and get ahead of competitors."