Consumer Behavior

NRF holiday forecast: Retail sales increase reflects consumer resiliency

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October 21, 2026

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The National Retail Federation's annual holiday forecast predicts retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025, reaching a total spend of $1.013 trillion.

By comparison, last year's holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024 totaling $972 billion, according to a press release.

"This year's forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the release. "Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.

NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with last year's estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs.