Consumer Behavior

How retailers can capitalize as consumers become more intentional

Economics and budget tightening are spurring shoppers to be more intentional when purchasing. The trend presents opportunities for retailers to win new customers and build loyalty.

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September 25, 2026 by Judy Mottl — Editor: RetailCustomerExperience.com & DigitalSignageToday.com, Connect Media

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Summer has ebbed across the U.S. and the back-to-school shopping season illustrated an evolution in consumer behavior — shoppers are much more intentional when shopping.

The back-to-school shopping sales season typically kicks off in early August in the U.S. southern and western regions and in mid to late August in the Midwest and northeast.

The sales season revealed shoppers are increasingly making fewer store visits while spending more when they shop.The evidence is in the data. Sensormatic Solutions' May and June TrafficTrak'r data suggests shoppers are becoming increasingly intentional with purchases. While U.S. in-store traffic declined 3.2% year over year in May and 2.7% in June, conversion rates increased 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively. In June, sales per shopper also rose 5.5% year over year, while average transaction sizes increased by 1.8%, demonstrating that consumers are making fewer, but higher-value shopping trips.

RetailCustomerExperience reached out via an email interview to Grant Gustafson who serves as head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, a global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls, to learn how the latest shopping trend played out in the back-to-school sales season and how retailers can optimize the trend.

Q. Can you describe this year's back to school shopping season outlook in one word and is there any big defining trend taking place?

Gustafson: This year's back-to-school shopping season can be described as "intentional." Consumers are sticking to their lists and increasingly know what they want to buy before they enter a store, often down to the brand, style or color. Many are researching products ahead of time and arriving ready to make a purchase.

We see this reflected in shopper behavior. While U.S. in-store traffic has remained relatively consistent year over year, shoppers are spending more when they visit because they are coming in with a clear purpose and greater purchase confidence. While U.S. in-store traffic declined 2.7% year over year in June and 3.6% in July, conversion rates increased 3.6% and 5.7%, respectively. In July, sales per shopper rose 6.3% year over year, while average transaction sizes were relatively flat, increasing by 0.6%.

The takeaway is that shoppers are being more deliberate with their trips. They're not browsing between stores as much as they once did; they're consolidating their visits and entering stores with a specific purchase in mind and following through, resulting in stronger conversion and higher spending per visit.

Q: What is driving consumers to be so intentional with purchasing?

Gustafson: A more intentional consumer today is primarily driven by economic cost pressure and a shift toward value-based spending. On one hand, there's continued anxiety around economic uncertainty and rising prices, which is driving consumers to limit impulse purchases and focus on saving. On the other, consumers have more shopping options today the ever before, embracing omnichannel experiences—essentially, they can be intentional about their purchases in a way that was not available before empowering consumers to shop when, where, and how they choose.

The majority of shoppers know what they want before they set foot in the store. Critically, they know it down to the brand, color and price point, and they've likely verified that it's in stock. Put these two things together, and it's not hard to see why shopper behavior is evolving.

Q: What does more intentional shopping mean for the retailer?

Gustafson: As consumers are increasingly intentional during their in-store visits, it is further reinforced that retailers must be prepared with adequate staffing and resources, especially to accommodate the busiest days of the season. Each region's school calendar, the global supply chain and consumer behavior trends impact how shoppers show up.

These trends present an opportunity for retailers to win new customers and build loyalty by fine-tuning product assortments, promotions and operations that can transform an annual errand into a meaningful, satisfying experience. It's essential for retailers to reflect accurate inventory and pricing, both online and in-store, for consumers to identify what they need to purchase and what location to visit.

Aligning staffing during high-traffic seasons is also an important factor in a seamless customer journey. Scheduling enough staff during the busiest times of the season enables retailers to keep shelves stocked, help customers find products, update inventory and maintain positive customer experiences.

Q: Why is it key for retailers to ensure inventory and product availability?

Gustafson: The back-to-school shopping season is an influential period for building brand trust and loyalty. By ensuring product availability, retailers are demonstrating their expertise in managing their supply chains and product assortments, emphasizing their reliability.

Since customers are researching their purchases before heading in-store, and with the increasing adoption of AI shopping tools it's even more critical today for retailers to maintain accurate inventory data. Product availability and delivering a positive customer experience is critical in today's competitive retail market and can set retailers up for success ahead of the holiday shopping season.

Q: Of the busiest back-to-school shopping weeks which will be revealed to be tops and why?

Gustafson: What's unique about the back-to-school season is it doesn't happen all at once. It rolls across the country like a wave. While the impact can be seen at the national level, it's important to look at the back-to-school season regionally. Our predicted busiest weeks stem from regional U.S. data, broken out into four regions, South, West, Midwest, and Northeast parts of the country. Taking school calendars into account and historical traffic data, it's expected that the busiest days will occur about two weeks before the local school year begins in each region.

Based on our analysis, the busiest week will be August 2 through August 8 in the south and west, since schools have an earlier start date in those regions . The Midwest should peak between August 9 through August 15. The northeast is the last to head back to school with expected peak shopping August 16 through 29. Even with an unusually late Labor Day, the overall timing and in-store visits are expected to remain relatively consistent year to year.

Overall, 2026's in-store traffic trends are expected to be in line with year-to-date performance.

About Judy Mottl

Judy Mottl is the editor of RetailCustomerExperience.com and DigitalSignageToday.com at Connect Media. She is an award-winning editor, reporter and blogger who has worked for top media for nearly four decades, including AOL, InformationWeek and Internet News, as well as for leading technology providers including HP. She’s written everything from breaking news to in-depth industry trends and reported on technology long before the internet arrived, including the debut of the first smartphone. When she's not sharing insights on digital signage deployments and trends in retail customer experience she's on the beach or watching the latest live murder trial.

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