Consumer Behavior

Back-to-school shopping on record-hitting track despite consumers seeking best deals

Big spending expected in the back-to-school retail shopping season but consumers are feeling pressure.

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July 22, 2026 by Judy Mottl — Editor: RetailCustomerExperience.com & DigitalSignageToday.com, Connect Media

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Back-to-school shopping is expected to hit a record high of $43.3 billion for K through 12 shoppers and $103.5 billion for back-to-college shoppers.

That's despite challenging economics for consumers, from inflation to increasing prices on goods such as fuel.

Those economic factors are likely why consumers are shopping earlier than ever, seeking discounts and sales at annual shopping events such as Amazon's Prime Day, Target Circle Days and Walmart deals, and doing their best to stretch each and every dollar of spending.

Over half, 62%, of shoppers started shopping for the school year by early July, according to the annual survey released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Over a third, 32%, started as of June, according to the survey.

Those are the top findings during a live one-hour webinar hosted by the National Retail Federation on Tuesday regarding its annual back-to-school survey, conducted with Prosper Insights.

The survey, which polled U.S. consumers, has been conducted since 2003. Speakers were Allison Zeller, NRF's vice president of consumer and industry insights and Mark Matthews, chief economist and executive director of research at the National Retail Federation.

The back-to-school shopping season is bigger than the combined shopping activity and spend of Father's Day, Mother's Day, Super Bowl and Easter, according to the survey.

"It's also regarded as the last major read on the consumer before we head into the holidays," said Zeller.

3 themes: Affordability, shopping channels, new shopping lists

Affordability, channel shifts and new shopping lists were cited as the key three themes in back-to-school shopping behavior this year.

Prices are big focus

The survey revealed that more than half of consumers, 61%, report seeing higher prices and 46% are now comparison shopping more while 41% are shopping discount retailers.

That means consumers are motivated to stretch their dollars, according to Matthews.

At the same time inflation is eating into wages, wage growth is effectively at zero and consumer savings are at record lows.

The good news for retailers, and the economy, is that consumers are not willing to compromise when it comes to back-to-school shopping.

The survey revealed 37% will cut back on other spending areas to spend on back-to-school items.

"The good news for retailers and the economy is frankly that when it comes to prioritizing how they're spending their hard-earned dollars, consumers are telling us that they're not willing to compromise on spending," said Matthews.

"We have a consumer who is motivated to spend on their loved ones with back to school," he said. "The consumer is willing to make sacrifices."

Where consumers are shopping

Regarding shopping channel shifts — where consumers shop — the retail landscape has evolved into a diverse set of shopping sites and stores.

"They're no longer doing the one-stop shop to shop," said Zeller.

The survey revealed lines are blurred between online and in-store given the increased use of AI search engines and chatbot options for shopping needs. Consumers aren't necessarily hitting a retail site or store but are locating items through search efforts that now present opportunities to buy within the app.

The shopping channel shift is also boosting shopping at small businesses as consumers are finding and buying more at small business retailers.

What's on the shopping list

A big trend in terms of the back-to-school shopping list is that electronics aren't as high on the list as in the past.

The big reason is that educational institutions are providing needed technology so consumers aren't putting electronics on the list as they did in the past.

"A growing number of families are taking a step back from needing a purchase of technology," said Keller.

But electronics spending isn't disappearing; it's being redirected, according to the survey, from a personal student-owned tool to a family-owned resource instead.

When it comes to completing the shopping list fewer lists are done by August and that's likely due to consumers focused on trying to find the best deals.

About Judy Mottl

Judy Mottl is the editor of RetailCustomerExperience.com and DigitalSignageToday.com at Connect Media. She is an award-winning editor, reporter and blogger who has worked for top media for nearly four decades, including AOL, InformationWeek and Internet News, as well as for leading technology providers including HP. She’s written everything from breaking news to in-depth industry trends and reported on technology long before the internet arrived, including the debut of the first smartphone. When she's not sharing insights on digital signage deployments and trends in retail customer experience she's on the beach or watching the latest live murder trial.

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